‘Cacophony of chaos’ why the US election outcome is more uncertain than ever. According to C-span Organization, The Thursday outdoor campaign rally AR Airport hangar in Latrobe, Pennsylvania, carries the memories of Trump’s campaign in 2016. When Trump whipped with excitement in unglamorous corners of battleground states to overthrow conventional wisdom and Edge out Hillary Clinton. This is seen has Trump is pulling bigger and noise crowds than his rival Joe Biden.
According to The Guardian, just like the old times, Donald Trump stood at a presidential lectern, encouraging a mammon crowd of supporters. Few of them wire face mask or physically distanced, to turn and boo “fake news” media. Behind him, Air Force one bathed in a glorious sunset, and a huge US flag dangles from a crane and two giant signs declared, “Make America great again!”
‘Cacophony of Chaos’ Why The US Election Outcome Is More Uncertain Than Ever
However, in 2020 the political crystal ball is cloudier than ever. According to President George W Bush’s defense secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, The Atlantic who once ruminated on “known knowns”, “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know”. The 2020 presidential election is now a smorgasbord of all three. There is fear on the opinion polls, or are they missing “hidden” Trump voters? Would Biden, like Clinton win the popular vote and lose the electoral college? Will people vote via mail, despite the President’s efforts to undermine the postal service, or feel safe queuing to vote on election day in the middle of the global pandemic? Will the result be shown on election night or take days or even weeks? Could the result like 2020 by decided in the courts? These are the curious questions in view.
Cacophony of Chaos’ Events before the US Election
Events unfolding happening before the US election. According to Tara Setmayer, “You couldn’t script this any worse, short of hurricanes and earthquakes taking place at the same time across the country,” He is a political analyst and former Republican communications director on Capitol Hill. According to him, the events before the election is like, “It is a cacophony of chaos being mixed together all at once as we approach election day.” One of the strategies Trump employs is chaos…that’s the way he’s governed and that’s the way he’s campaigning
The miasma of uncertainty was apparent over the past week when a batch of polls and burst of campaigning gave conflicting signals. Some observers were adamant they showed Biden holding on to a solid lead of seven or eight percentage points, higher than Clinton’s at the same stage, and praised him for displaying both empathy and steeliness in a series of speeches. “5 reasons Biden’s odds of victory look better than ever,” this was seen by New York Magazine headline.
However, according to a report ran by Washington headline who detected a shift in momentum and polls tightening, especially in swing states, it says, “Of course Trump can win,” A film maker Michael Moore wrote https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/29/michael-moore-donald-trump-repeat-2016-warning “I’m warning you almost 10 weeks in advance. The enthusiasm level for the 60 million in Trump’s base is OFF THE CHARTS! For Joe, not so much.” There was panic that Biden has been thrown on to the back foot by Trump’s demand for “law and order”.
Overshadowing it all are the cascading crises of public health, economic recession, racial injustice and a president waging asymmetric warfare in his willingness to say or do anything to retain power.
According to Monika McDermott, a political science professor at Fordham University in New York https://www.fordham.edu/info/24277/ma_in_elections_and_campaign_management_faculty/6866/monika_l_mcdermott He said “It’s just a perfect storm of dysfunction. That’s what we’re looking toward right now. It’s a road we’ve never traveled before.”
Trump’s stunning upset win in 2016 led to a widespread belief that the polling industry is fundamentally broken. In fact, the national polls were generally accurate in predicting that Clinton would win the popular vote by nearly 3m ballots. But they did not spot how Trump would thread the needle of winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by a combined total of fewer than 80,000 votes.
Recently Axios warned that the public should have “even less confidence” this time around, arguing that the flaws in state polling persist because there are not enough big sample surveys that take into account typical Trump voter demographics, such as people who did not attend university.
Axios also noted that the pandemic is expected to lead to a record number of mail-in ballots but the postal service lack experience and states could struggle to process them. People’s ability to vote in-person on 3 November is another known unknown, for example, due to shortages of poll workers.
McDermott added: “The reports of the death of polling were much exaggerated and too soon: the national polls nailed Hillary Clinton’s vote. It was much more accurate on a national level than it had been in either of the previous two presidential elections. For that, the polling industry deserves huge kudos because it was a relatively unknown situation with Donald Trump’s candidacy. It’s just a perfect storm of dysfunction. That’s what we’re looking toward right now
“But I think the problem was that we don’t have enough polling in the states to know what’s going to happen with the electoral college so we can’t run the kind of reliable averages or things like that that we do for the national vote.”
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